Nib #79 Speechwriting Workshop: J.D. Vance in Munich, Part III
So far, so good.
Vice President J.D. Vance opened (more or less) his February speech to the Munich Security Conference with a clear statement of his thesis: that Europe’s governing elite was retreating from democracy and free speech (Nib #76). In the very next sentence, Vance launched into a 900-word origin story for his argument (Nib #77).
Traditional rhetorical structure says Vance should have next pivoted from the past tense into the future tense to lay out the stakes (Nib #70) of the choice he’s putting to his audience.
And sure enough:
“But let me also ask you, how will you even begin to think through the[se] kinds of budgeting questions if we don't know what it is that we're defending in the first place?”
For the next 300 words or so, Vance continues in this subjunctive vein — partly predictive, partly speculative — about the future.
“If you are afraid…”
"If you’re running in fear of your own voters…”
“If you’re going to enjoy competitive economies, if you’re going to enjoy affordable energy and secure supply chains…”
Vance closes the loop on all those ifs with a pointed “then”:
“…there is nothing America can do for you. Nor, for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump.”
There is some structural and rhetorical sugarcoating in this section (whether intentional or not). But Vance’s core message was stark: America’s strategic alliances with Europe are ultimately based on a shared commitment to western values. A Europe that turns its back on freedom, democracy, and the rule of law is a Europe that would be choosing to have a very different relationship with the United States.
What speechwriters should note here is how natural and intuitive rhetorical structure makes Vance’s assertion. Had this been posted this as a tweet, it would come across as aggressive and caustic. Coming after his origin story, it’s obvious.
In this context, the threat of authoritarianism is not coming from America or Donald Trump - or the populist conservative parties now sweeping European politics. It’s actually Europe’s elites who are threatening democracy… and the Western alliances.
See how Vance’s argument builds. See how this structure — from thesis, to background narrative, to future stakes — primes an audience for the persuasive payoff of the substantive ask.
This is what good structure does for a speech — and why speechwriters should study and use it. Parts 1, 2, and 3 give speeches a chance to close the sale in parts 4 and 5. Next week, we’ll see what policy reform Vance thinks can pull Europe back from the brink.
Until then… keep writing!











